According to the former director of Ukrspetsexport Serhiy Bondarchuk, the reserves of expensive missiles in Russia are running out, they will not be able to make new ones due to sanctions, as the chips were supplied from Taiwan.
Russia does have large stockpiles of missiles, but the problem is that the components are supplied from Taiwan, and in Ukraine the use of weapons has long exceeded the planned limits. But it is very expensive for Russia to incur such costs. For example, "Caliber" (range 3000-5000 km) in Russia is very much, but their cost is $ 5 million apiece. Their reserve is over.
But there is still a strategic margin, and it requires attention. Most likely, the Russians will not be able to use it, because nothing will protect the borders, this will be used immediately by opponents. It is impossible to replenish the stock, because there are no real opportunities to purchase chips. The same situation with the "Iskanders" (ballistic missile systems of the class "ground-to-ground" operational and tactical use) stockpile for the invasion is exhausted.
In Ukraine - with missiles for 5 million, then - with a bare ass
Therefore, Russia will soon face the fact that the world's longest border line in Russia, which is 20 thousand kilometers, will remain unprotected. This will certainly be an incentive for countries that have territorial claims to Russia. Military expansion requires savings in personal expenses, which was not observed among the oligarchs.
In this regard, the shelling of expensive housing in the Ukrainian housing stock looks very strange. It seems that the general who gave the command wants to intimidate the population and expel them from the country without thinking about the consequences. And clearly the leaders underestimate the potential of the Armed Forces, which has already become visible to all but Russia.
This is a dead end to show Putin some results, because they have no military success. With such a contingent sent to Ukraine, having no success is a complete failure.
And because of this it is summarized by the lack of weapons in warehouses. First of all, ammunition.
Compensate for the lack of prohibited weapons
The lack of FAB-500 and FAB-1000 high-explosive bombs, which are banned from military use, is clear. There is another war crime. Aviation is needed to convey this "deadly stupid miracle", and Ukraine has already shot down a third of the planes, half of the helicopters and the Russian fleet.
The military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation is a rotten "Soviet"
Based on the use of ammunition, it can be assumed that the duration of such expansion will not exceed another month. But it is, of course, difficult to draw conclusions, Bondarchuk suggested.
When you look at the armaments of the Russian Federation on Red Square, everything looks steadfast and modern, but in fact - it's all Soviet developments, with all the advantages, especially in the transport sector, they are hopelessly outdated. Despite the large stocks of equipment in warehouses, not all of it is in combat readiness. In the best case, you can make one out of 10 tanks, but again, you may not need modern components.
The "trick" of Russian aviation is excessively advertised
In 2005-2010, Russian aviation was 10 times superior to Ukrainian. Moreover, it was a question of a qualitative advantage, because the new aviation equipment of Sukharev's bureau was in service. But in Ukraine, Russia has lost more than a month in 30 post-Soviet years. The training of pilots can be questioned.
The Russian command could not count on such aircraft losses, so rocket fire is now being used. But only to terrorize the population, to expel it from populated areas and not to meet resistance in the offensive from the south, where cities have already been captured.
The enemy still has many missiles to terrorize the population
Many missiles remained in the reserves of the Russian Federation, only 15% artillery was used. But their reserves are depleting.
The first results of the war - dispelled the myth of the steadfast "second army of the world"
The whole world perceives the Russian army as huge and invincible, but in a month it was destroyed on the battlefield. Russia had the opportunity to reform its troops after 2014, but did not start doing so. The result was not long in coming. After all, the invasion of Ukraine is not a walking trip to the Crimea. It seems that the Russian military was going to catch chickens in the yards, if not to take pictures with the captured grandmothers.
The practice of professional nihilism is widespread in Russia, it is all "Potemkin village", although it was once Ukraine. The same myth applies to the Kremlin's power and the myth of Putin's rule.
The attack on Georgia is significant, but no one paid attention
Back in 2008, Russia lost a huge number of planes in Georgia. Ukraine helped Georgia build a defensive shield. In Georgia, strategic sides were downed, which had a low quality of intelligence, especially at the level of the Foreign Intelligence Service.
"Sweet speeches" - bad military results
Russia's military and political leadership gave Putin refined reports that he wanted to see. Regarding the situation, it is clear that the monitoring of the situation had nothing to do with reality. In addition, miscalculations were made in forecasting the Ukrainian resistance, and no one expected it in such a potential.
Western experts conclude that current events are not only unplanned, they do not correspond to any previous plans.
Russian weapons are ineffective
The light armored complex Pantsir, the Armata tank and the SU-34 bomber are novelties of the Russian defense industry. This equipment is not visible in Ukraine. The shell was used in Karabakh in 2020. They successfully destroyed the Turkish Bayratars, but this was not confirmed in Ukraine.
Russia has not only scandalized the Ukrainian operation, but will also lose budgets for the supply of 70% components for foreign weapons. Sanctions effectively destroy Russia's defense power, combined with the use of weapons in the Ukrainian operation. There is nothing to fill them with. It takes years or even decades to work out the whole complex from scratch by effectively closing production chains.
Ukrainian air defense
The USSR Buk and S-300 complexes were modernized and updated in 2006-2010, so Ukrainian air defense systems are very effective at the age of 35. This is enhanced by American Stinger systems (portable anti-aircraft missile systems of the class "ground - air"), received from the United States. They hit air targets at low altitudes.
Bondarchuk sums up that the war is not only an offensive operation, it is also a war between models of weapons, as well as an economic war. But if the latest SU-34 for $ 50 million is destroyed by a 35-year-old "Naked" reservist of Ukrposhta, then such equipment is worthless - neither $ 50 million nor even 10 thousand dollars in the arms market.
Samples of Ukrainian weapons
The Stugna ATC, the Neptune cruise missile, consisting of 100% Ukrainian components, has performed well in Ukraine, hitting targets at a distance of 300 km. This missile has an incredibly high export potential, especially in the conditions of the liberated Russian market.
The Alder missile system, which is also made of 100% Ukrainian components, has the same potential. In addition, there are very serious developments: armored personnel carriers, UAV missile systems. For example, there is an unmanned helicopter, which simply did not have time to release.
The Russians bombed the Promin Design Bureau in Kyiv, which was developing parts of Ukraine's aviation and anti-tank weapons systems, but they are based on various sites unknown to Russia. The destroyed premises housed design and engineering areas, not production. That is, roughly speaking, they bombed offices.
"Most likely, the real goal of the Russians was McDonald's on Lukyanovskaya to take revenge for leaving their market."
Full text of the article: https://biz.liga.net/all/all/interview/strana-potemkinskaya-derevnya-pochemu-rossiya-neset-ogromnye-poteri-i-chem-eto-ey-grozit.
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